2019 City of Burlington Overview

Municipal Overview

The City of Burlington has primarily been characterized as a municipality with maturing neighbourhoods, which results in decreasing student-aged population.

As it relates to development potential, Burlington will be relying predominantly on intensification activities within the core (e.g. high-density development units – condominiums) to meet growth targets, as well as some low density infill developments. Greenfield development (low to medium density development subdivisions – Single Family Dwelling and Townhomes) lots are still available in Burlington; however, they will not account for the majority of the growth.

City of Burlington Projections

As is demonstrated in the below figure, the total enrolment for the City of Burlington for both the elementary and secondary school panel are projected to remain relatively stable overall, not showing any significant growth or declines overall. Note however that there are areas within the City of Burlington that continue to see or are beginning to witness declines. The Board will need to continue monitoring these areas, and determine what actions may need to be taken to re-balance the enrolment in these specific areas.

The projection period for the Long-Term Capital Plan (LTCP) is over a 15-year projection period, between the 2018-2033 school years. During this time, the Board anticipates the following:

  • Within a 15-year period, the City of Burlington’s elementary panel enrolment is projected to remain relatively stable, only increasing from 6,098 students to 6,102 students, representing less than 1% growth overall. Utilization for the elementary panel will fluctuate between 99% to 106% over this period.
  • Within a 15-year period, the City of Burlington’s secondary panel enrolment is projected to increase from 3,195 students to 3,484 students, an increase of approximately 9% overall. Utilization for the secondary panel will fluctuate between 99% and 111% over this period.

City of Burlington Overall Enrolment Projection

Upcoming Projects

Type of ProjectProject DescriptionYear RequiredCPFP Opportunity
Capital ProjectsN/AN/AN/A
Pupil Accommodation ReviewsProvincial Moratorium in Effect.
School Boundary & Program ReviewsCSB1 School Boundary Review1-5 yearsTBD
CEB2, CEB3 School Boundary Review6-15 yearsTBD
Renewal ProjectsAssumption CSS Renewal and Addition2019-20No
Notre Dame CSS Renewal2019-20No
Canadian Martyrs CES Renewal2019-20No
St. Gabriel CES Renewal2019-20No
St. Mark CES Renewal2019-20No
Schools with Underutilized SpacesSt. Christopher CES6-15 yearsYes
St. Elizabeth Seton CES6-15 yearsYes

Projections By Elementary Review Area (ERA)

Description

Enrolment in this review area is projected to increase slightly over the long-term, largely due to increased development activity.

This is a mature review area with some greenfield development areas in the North Aldershot Area (north of Highway 403). The area also includes the proposed Aldershot GO Mobility Hub.

Schools Involved

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projections

CEB1 Overview and Projection Details

CEB1 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Long-term (6-15 years) 

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Description

Recent increases in the JK cohorts were noted at all schools in this review area. It should be noted that at this time, it is uncertain whether similarly high JK cohorts will occur over the next few school years. Enrolment will continue to be monitored.

This is a mature and relatively stable review area with no greenfield development potential. However, the area includes proposed Downtown, Burlington GO, and Appleby GO Mobility Hubs. Additional development throughout the community will take the form of existing single-family home replacements and redevelopment of commercial, institutional or other sites for residential infill.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEB2 Overview and Projection Details

CEB2 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Long-term (6-15 years) 

  • A School Boundary Review should be conducted for CEB2 and CEB3 to balance enrolment across area schools.

Description

Enrolment is projected to increase slightly over the medium-term, then decline and stabilize over the long-term. The overall increase is driven largely by an increase in enrolment at St. Gabriel CES due to slightly higher birth rates in the community.

St. Gabriel CES currently hosts the regional Extended French program, and Canadian Martyrs CES hosts regional Special Education Classes for Gifted students.

This area contains maturing and stabilizing communities with limited development potential.

Schools Involved

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projections

CEB3 Overview and Projection Details

CEB3 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Long-term (6-15 years) 

  • A School Boundary Review should be conducted for CEB2 and CEB3 to balance enrolment across area schools.

Description

Enrolment has increased within this review area due to growth in the Alton community. Enrolment is forecasted to stabilize in the short-term before decreasing in 2023. The decrease is driven by significant declines in enrolment in the Orchard community as it matures, precipitated mostly by decreasing JK enrolments

Sacred Heart of Jesus CES hosts regional French Immersion programming.

Alton and Evergreen remain the only remaining greenfield development within this area. Some intensification opportunities do exist within this area, including the Uptown Urban Centre at Appleby Line and Upper Middle Road.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEB4 Overview and Projection Details

CEB4 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Long-term (6-15 years) 

  • If enrolment continues to decline at St. Elizabeth Seton CES and St. Christopher CES, explore facility partnership opportunities at the schools.

There are no elementary schools within this review area – students from within this area attend St. Gabriel CES and Canadian Martyrs CES in CEB3.

This area has no development potential as it sits outside of the Burlington Urban Boundary and is protected under the Ontario Greenbelt Plan. Area contains rural housing and includes the communities of Mount Nemo, Lowville and Kilbride, with some minor rural estate subdivisions.

CEB5 Overview and Projection Details

Projections By Secondary Review Area (SRA)

Overview

Enrolment has declined over the last few years but has started to increase in 2017 and 2018. Overall, it is expected to gradually increase over the long term.

The availability of the Advanced Placement (AP) program is expected to continue attracting students to Assumption CSS. Notre Dame CSS hosts the regional secondary Extended French program.

Students from Alton and proposed Evergreen community will support enrolment at Corpus Christ CSS in the long-term. The area also includes proposed City of Burlington Mobility Hubs, which envision medium- to high-density residential developments within the existing urban areas.

Schools Involved

Projections

CSB1 Overview and Projection Details

CSB1 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • A School Boundary Review may need to be conducted in 1-5 years to rebalance enrolment in Burlington secondary schools as Assumption is projected to exceed site capacity in the long-term. This is dependent on the impact of increased class sizes on utilization.
  • Explore the potential for program enhancements (e.g. International Student Program) to increase overall enrolment at Corpus Christi CSS.

Long-term (6-15 years) 

  • If enrolment continues to decline at Corpus Christi CSS, explore facility partnership opportunities at the school.
Erica Emery2019 City of Burlington Overview