Analyze Historic Junior Kindergarten (JK) Registrations
Junior Kindergartens (JK) are the starting point of a student’s academic career, and are very important in development of a 15-year Long-Term projection. The cohort size of a school’s JK in the first year will predict it’s overall enrolment size in the long-term. Accordingly, JK enrolment is monitored regularly. The below are key principals:
- JK projections are first calculated by mirroring the previous year’s actual JK enrolment (assuming a flat line projection)
- JK projections are adjusted based on historic birth rates within the school’s boundary (provided by Halton Region)
- JK enrolment may also be adjusted when reviewing the previous year’s JK enrolment data
Analyze Progression Factors & Rules
Progression Factors and Rules represent historic trends of where students go year-over-year by grade, which are then applied to predict their future movements through their academic career. Below are explanations of the two (2):
- A Progression Factor is the ratio of students that move from grade-to-grade, year-over-year at the same school (e.g. ratio (%) of students progressing from Grade 1 to Grade 2).
- A Progression Rule is the ratio of students that move from school-to-school for specific program offerings (e.g. ratio of students progressing from Grade 4 to Grade 5 Extended French).
Progressions Factors can have ratios that are equal to, lower than, or higher than 100%. If a Progression Factors is above 100%, it means the school historically gains students year-over-year in that particular grade. If a Progression Factor is below 100%, it means the opposite, where the schools loses students year-over-year in a particular grade.
Progression Rules are similar to Progression Factors. Typically, a ratio of a grade is transferred to another school, and the remaining ratio remains at the school to continue in the regular stream.