2019 Town of Oakville Overview

Overview Description

Overall, Oakville’s built neighbourhood fabric can be characterized one of three (3) ways: maturing, established, and new growth. South of the QEW (CEO1) is comprised of the oldest maturing neighbourhoods; North of the QEW and South of Upper Middle Road are also maturing but newer neighbourhoods seeing mostly infill growth and low enrolment yields. North of Upper Middle Road and South of Dundas Street are established neighbourhoods with sustained and continued development and enrolment growth. And lastly, the geography north of Dundas Street (CEO6) is new Greenfield development, characterized by high development growth and potentially high enrolment yields.

As it relates to future development potential, Oakville still has a very generous supply of greenfield developments (low to medium density development subdivisions – Single Family Dwelling and Townhomes) identified as the North Oakville Secondary Plan (East and West) north of Dundas Street (CEO6) to meet its growth targets. A significant number of subdivision applications within the secondary plan have already come online and are under construction. These developments are currently serviced by the newly opened St. Gregory the Great CES (CEO6). The latter opened in September 2016 to accommodate future enrolment growth north of Dundas as the four (4) elementary school sites designated in North Oakville are established.

In addition, there are also two (2) new growth areas located between Upper Middle Road and the QEW, which are the former Saw-Whet (CEO2) and Glen Abbey (CEO3) golf courses being converted into residential developments.

Town of Oakville Projections

As demonstrated in the below figure, the total enrolment for the Town of Oakville for both the elementary and secondary school panels are projected to be stable as growth generates new students that counteract declines in other areas. There are a number of existing communities that are experiencing overall declines as JK cohort sizes and birth rates decline. Overall, enrolment growth in the North Oakville Secondary Plan area is projected to balance declining enrolment in other areas of Oakville. Also note that the closure and consolidation of two (2) schools improved overall utilization.

The projection period for the Long-Term Capital Plan (LTCP) is over a 15-year projection period, between the 2018-2033 school years. During this time, the Board anticipates the following:

  • Within a 15-year period, the Town of Oakville’s elementary panel enrolment is projected to continue growing overall, increasing from 7,387 students to 8,654 students, representing an overall growth of approximately 17%. Utilization for the elementary panel will increase from 98% to 113% over this period.
  • Within a 15-year period, the Town of Oakville’s secondary panel enrolment is projected to increase from 3,891 students to 4,224 students, an increase of approximately 9%. Utilization for the secondary panel will increase from 102% to 111% over this period.

Upcoming Projects

Type of ProjectProject DescriptionYear RequiredCPFP Opportunity
Capital ProjectsSt. Dominic CES Rebuild2020-21Yes
North Oakville #4 CES2021-22Yes
North Oakville #5 CES2025-26Yes
North Oakville #3 CES2029-30Yes
North Oakville #1 CES2033+Yes
Pupil Accommodation ReviewsProvincial Moratorium in Effect.
School Boundary & Program ReviewsCEO2-3, 6 Administrative School Boundary Review for Saw Whet (Bronte Green) and North Oakville West1-5 yearsNo
CEO2-6 School Boundary Review1-5 yearsTBD
Renewal ProjectsSt. Michael CES Renewal and Addition2019-20No
Schools with Underutilized SpacesHoly Family CES1-5 yearsYes
St. James CES1-5 yearsYes
St. Luke CES1-5 yearsYes
St. Marguerite d’Youville CES1-5 yearsYes
St. Teresa of Calcutta CES1-5 yearsYes
St. John Paul II CES6-15 yearsYes
St. Vincent CES6-15 yearsYes

Projections By Elementary Review Area (ERA)

Description

Enrolment has been decreasing over the last five (5) years and is projected to continue decreasing further before stabilizing over the long-term.

Through a Modified Pupil Accommodation Review (MPAR) undertaken in 2015-16 and subsequent approval from the Ministry of Education for the construction of St. Nicholas CES on the site of former St. Joseph (O) CES, the new St. Nicholas CES facility is scheduled to open in 2019-20.

Neighbourhoods are continuing to age and mature within this area. Future development will take the form of existing single-family home replacements and redevelopment of commercial and institutional sites for residential uses. Medium and high-density intensification is proposed within the Bronte Village, Kerr Street, Downtown Oakville and Midtown Oakville Growth Areas.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO1 Overview and Projection Details

CEO1 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to apply for Ministry funding to address renewal needs and rebuild St. Dominic CES to address high renewal needs.
  • Identify St. Luke CES as available for Community Planning and Facility Partnerships.
  • Upon the opening of the new St. Nicholas CES facility, explore partnership opportunities for the former St. James CES (STJA) facility.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • If enrolment continues to decline at St. Vincent CES, explore facility partnership opportunities at the school.

Description

Enrolment has declined in this review area over the last few years and is forecasted to continue declining gradually over the long-term as communities age and mature.

St. Mary CES hosts regional French Immersion programming. Extended French will be introduced at St. Joan of Arc CES starting in 2019. This new optional program supports to stabilize enrolment at St. Joan of Arc CES in the long-term along with creating a more local location for the optional program north of Upper Middle Road for most CEO2 schools.

Multiple large-scale residential developments exist within the St. Mary CES school catchment. This catchment has high development potential over the long-term as it includes the Palermo Village Growth Area. There is limited development potential within St. Joan of Arc CES and St. John Paul II CES catchments.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO2 Overview and Projection Details

CEO2 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • An Administrative School Boundary Review should be conducted to determine school catchments for Saw Whet (Bronte Green) and North Oakville West.
  • A School Boundary Review may be conducted for CEO2-6 to balance enrolment across area schools.
  • Identify St. Teresa of Calcutta CES as available for Community Planning and Facility Partnerships.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • If enrolment continues to decline at St. John Paul II Catholic Elementary Schools, explore facility partnership opportunities at the school.

Description

Enrolment has increased over the last five (5) years. It is forecasted to stabilize over the long-term.

Both schools in this review area currently host regional Extended French programs serving CEO2, CEO3, and most of CEO4 and CEO5, which support declining enrolment in the Regular Track programs.

Accommodation pressures at St. Matthew CES are expected to be addressed through Extended French Immersion programming changes starting in 2019. Additional details regarding program changes are available in CEO3 Overview and Projection Details.

The Glen Abbey Golf Course is the last major area with development potential within this review area.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO3 Overview and Projection Details

CEO3 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • An Administrative School Boundary Review should be conducted to determine school catchments for Saw Whet (Bronte Green) and North Oakville West.
  • A School Boundary Review may be conducted for CEO2-6 to balance enrolment across area schools.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Description

Enrolment has declined over the last five (5) years and is expected to continue decreasing over the long term as neighbourhoods continue to age. To address declining enrolment and high renewal needs, a Pupil Accommodation Review was undertaken in 2016-17.

In early 2018, the Board received funding for an addition to St. Michael CES following its consolidation with St. John (O) CES, which is scheduled to open 2019-20.

Extended French will be introduced at Our Lady of Peace CES (CEO5) starting in 2019. This new location will serve Our Lady of Peace CES, St. Andrew CES (CEO5) and St. Michael CES. Our Lady of Peace CES is a more local school for the ExF program east of Sixteen Mile Creek as students are currently transported across the creek to St. Bernadette CES (CEO3) and St. Matthew CES (CEO3).

Development potential is limited within this area and will take the form of infill development and a few high-density developments along Trafalgar Road.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO4 Overview and Projection Details

CEO4 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • A School Boundary Review may be conducted for CEO2-6 to balance enrolment across area schools.
  • Identify Holy Family CES as available for Community Planning and Facility Partnerships.
  • If the School Boundary Review and French Immersion Program Review, as well as the availability of Holy Family CES and St. Marguerite d’Youville CES (CEO5) for Community Planning and Facility Partnerships, do not result in a reduction in empty pupil places and increased utilization of Holy Family CES and St. Marguerite d’Youville CES, a Pupil Accommodation Review involving CEO4 and CEO5 may be required in the future.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Description

Overall, enrolment has declined in this review area over the past five years and is expected to continue declining over the long-term. To address declining enrolment and high renewal needs, a Pupil Accommodation Review was undertaken in 2016-17. On February 20, 2018, the Board of Trustees rescinded the motion for the consolidation of Holy Family CES (CEO4) and St. Marguerite D’Youville CES.

St. Andrew CES hosts regional Special Education Classes for Gifted students and St. Marguerite D’Youville CES hosts regional Extended French programming. Extended French will be introduced at Our Lady of Peace CES (CEO5) starting in 2019. This new location will serve Our Lady of Peace CES, St. Andrew CES and St. Michael CES (CEO4). Our Lady of Peace CES is a more local school for the ExF program east of Sixteen Mile Creek as students are currently transported across the creek to St. Bernadette CES (CEO3) and St. Matthew CES (CEO3).

Development potential exists in the Uptown Core Growth Area (South of Dundas Street at Trafalgar Road) for the long-term. These developments will impact St. Andrew CES.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO5 Overview and Projection Details

CEO5 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • A School Boundary Review may be conducted for CEO2-6 to balance enrolment across area schools.
  • If enrolment continues to decline at St. Marguerite d’Youville CES, explore facility partnership opportunities at the school.
  • If the School Boundary Review and French Immersion Program Review, as well as the availability of Holy Family CES (CEO4) and St. Marguerite d’Youville CES for Community Planning and Facility Partnerships, do not result in a reduction in empty pupil places and increased utilization of Holy Family CES and St. Marguerite d’Youville CES, a Pupil Accommodation Review involving CEO4 and CEO5 may be required in in the future.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment.

Description

The first school within this review area was opened in 2016. Since then, enrolment has increased gradually at the school.

Enrolment is projected to increase significantly over time as development continues in the North Oakville. The Board has identified the need for a total of five (5) Catholic Elementary Schools within the North Oakville East Secondary Plan. As such, St. Gregory the Great CES will be the holding school until a second Catholic elementary school is introduced in the area. St. Gregory the Great CES is projected to exceed OTG capacity by 2023.

The pace of enrolment growth has been slower than expected within this new community. It should be noted that demographics within this community were not what was expected. As such, enrolment will continue to be monitored and timing for additional schools will continually be reviewed to ensure accommodation requirements are met for this community.

Schools Involved

Projections

CEO6 Overview and Projection Details

CEO6 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • An Administrative School Boundary Review should be conducted to determine school catchments for Saw Whet (Bronte Green) and North Oakville West.
  • A School Boundary Review may be conducted for CEO2-6 to balance enrolment across area schools.
  • As development proceeds within the North Oakville East Secondary Plan, the next elementary school (North Oakville #4 CES) will be required by 2021-22 to accommodate students from new development.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • As development proceeds within the North Oakville East Secondary Plan, the third elementary school (North Oakville #3 or #5 CES) in North Oakville will be required by 2025-26 to accommodate students from new development. The fourth elementary school (North Oakville #1, #3 or #5 CES) in North Oakville will be required by 2029-30. The fifth elementary school (North Oakville #1 of #5 CES) in North Oakville will be required after 2033. The timing of development within certain neighbourhoods of North Oakville will continue to be monitored to determine the order that North Oakville #1, #3 and #5 CES will be the required.

Projections By Secondary Review Area (SRA)

Description

Enrolment has increased at St. Thomas Aquinas CSS for the last few years and forecasted to be stable over the long-term.

The availability of the International Baccalaureate (IB) program continues to attract students to the school.

Neighbourhoods are continuing to age and mature within this area. Future development will take the form of existing single-family home replacements and redevelopment of commercial sites for residential uses. Medium and high-density intensification is proposed within the Bronte Village, Kerr Street, Downtown Oakville and Midtown Oakville Growth Areas.

Schools Involved

Projections

CSO1 Overview and Projection Details

CSO1 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment and program offering at the school.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Enrolment should be monitored to identify the need for a new secondary school in North Oakville (North Oakville #1 CSS).

Description

Enrolment has increased at St. Ignatius of Loyola CSS for the last five (5) years and forecasted to be stable over the long-term.

The school hosts the largest number of students from the International Student Program (ISP).

Multiple large-scale residential developments exist within the school catchment. This catchment has high development potential over the long-term. The school includes students from new residential developments in North Oakville (west of Sixth Line).

Schools Involved

Projections

CSO2 Overview and Projection Details

CSO2 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment and program offering at the school.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Enrolment should be monitored to identify the need for a new secondary school in North Oakville (North Oakville #1 CSS).

Description

Enrolment has been stable at Holy Trinity CSS for the last five years; and is forecasted to increase then stabilize just over OTG capacity over the long-term.

The availability of the new Advanced Placement (AP) program is expected to attract students to the school. The school also hosts regional Extended French programming.

Greenfield development potential exists around the Uptown Core at Trafalgar Road and Dundas Street. There developments are expected to be high-density in nature. The school includes students from new residential developments in North Oakville (west of Sixth Line).

Schools Involved

Projections

CSO3 Overview and Projection Details

CSO3 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment and program offering at the school.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Enrolment should be monitored to identify the need for a new secondary school in North Oakville (North Oakville #1 CSS).

Description

There are currently no secondary schools within this review area. Students from this area attend St. Ignatius of Loyola CSS (West of Sixth Line) and Holy Trinity CSS (East of Sixth Line).

Greenfield development will continue to occur within this area over the long-term and is forecasted to impact enrolment in the community.

Enrolment is projected to increase significantly over time as development continues in the North Oakville Secondary Plan. One (1) Catholic Secondary School site has been designated within the North Oakville East Secondary Plan. The timing of the new secondary school will continually be reviewed to ensure accommodation pressures are met.

CSO4 Overview and Projection Details

CSO4 Recommendations

Short-term (1-5 years)

  • Continue to monitor enrolment and program offering at the school.

Long-term (6-15 years)

  • Enrolment should be monitored to identify the need for a new secondary school in North Oakville (North Oakville #1 CSS).
Erica Emery2019 Town of Oakville Overview