Overall, Oakville’s built neighbourhood fabric can be characterized one of three (3) ways: maturing, established, and new growth. South of the QEW (CEO1) is comprised of the oldest maturing neighbourhoods; North of the QEW and South of Upper Middle Road are also maturing but newer neighbourhoods seeing mostly infill growth and low enrolment yields. North of Upper Middle Road and South of Dundas Street are established neighbourhoods with sustained and continued development and enrolment growth. And lastly, the geography north of Dundas Street (CEO6) is new Greenfield development, characterized by high development growth and potentially high enrolment yields.
As it relates to future development potential, Oakville still has a very generous supply of greenfield developments (low to medium density development subdivisions – Single Family Dwelling and Townhomes) identified as the North Oakville Secondary Plan (East and West) north of Dundas Street (CEO6) to meet its growth targets. A significant number of subdivision applications within the secondary plan have already come online and are under construction. These developments are currently serviced by the newly opened St. Gregory the Great CES (CEO6). The latter opened in September 2016 to accommodate future enrolment growth north of Dundas as the four (4) elementary school sites designated in North Oakville are established.
In addition, there are also two (2) new growth areas located between Upper Middle Road and the QEW, which are the former Saw-Whet (CEO2) and Glen Abbey (CEO3) golf courses being converted into residential developments.
Town of Oakville Projections
As demonstrated in the below figure, the total enrolment for the Town of Oakville for both the elementary and secondary school panels are projected to be stable as growth generates new students that counteract declines in other areas. There are a number of existing communities that are experiencing overall declines as JK cohort sizes and birth rates decline. Overall, enrolment growth in the North Oakville Secondary Plan area is projected to balance declining enrolment in other areas of Oakville. Also note that the closure and consolidation of two (2) schools improved overall utilization.
The projection period for the Long-Term Capital Plan (LTCP) is over a 15-year projection period, between the 2018-2033 school years. During this time, the Board anticipates the following:
- Within a 15-year period, the Town of Oakville’s elementary panel enrolment is projected to continue growing overall, increasing from 7,387 students to 8,654 students, representing an overall growth of approximately 17%. Utilization for the elementary panel will increase from 98% to 113% over this period.
- Within a 15-year period, the Town of Oakville’s secondary panel enrolment is projected to increase from 3,891 students to 4,224 students, an increase of approximately 9%. Utilization for the secondary panel will increase from 102% to 111% over this period.